Will electricity prices be higher after today?
On October 29, a new method for calculating transmission capacity, the so-called "flow-based calculation model," will be launched in Sweden, in accordance with an existing EU regulation.
The purpose of this change is to use the electricity grid more efficiently and enable the transmission of more electricity to other countries in Europe without having to expand the grid.
As Sweden becomes more integrated with Europe's electricity grid, this could of course affect pricing. “How this will affect the consumer's final price is still uncertain, as the model is extremely complex,” says Tibber’s Trading Operations & Portfolio Manager Joakim Stenbeck. “Our forecast is that electricity prices this winter will be similar to last year.”
If electricity prices in Sweden do fluctuate more, these greater price variations create a stronger incentive for consumers to use electricity smarter and more flexibly. So far in 2024, users with hourly rate contracts have been the big winners, as they have been able to influence their electricity costs by adjusting their consumption to price variations.
A survey based on Statistics Sweden data shows that fixed electricity contracts have been over 100 percent more expensive than hourly price contracts so far in 2024, and around 40 percent more expensive than monthly variable contracts in northern and central Sweden (SE1, SE2 and SE3). Even in southern Sweden (SE4) the price differences are significant.
